Eight-division world champion Manny Pacquiao returns to action this weekend at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas to defend his WBA welterweight title against former four-division titleholder Adrien Broner. Looking for value in the Pacquiao vs. Broner odds? Read on to inform your Pacquiao vs. Broner prediction.
A close look at the Pacquiao vs. Broner odds
The 1X2 odds suggest this is not a 50/50 fight. Manny Pacquiao, despite being eleven years older at forty is the favourite, and the odds of 1.33*, propose the Filipino has approximately a 75% chance of victory.
The total rounds is set at 10.5, with Over 10.5 rounds priced at 1.36*, which suggests there is around a 70% chance that the fight will go long.
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Pacquiao vs. Broner: Analysing the strengths and weaknesses
Pacquiao looked impressive against Lucas Matthysse in his last bout, and Broner will not have boxed in nearly nine months, after coming off a draw and a loss in his last two fights, so the betting edge lies with Pacquiao.
Pacquiao doesn’t throw the same amount of punches now as he did in his prime, but he still throws many more than Broner. The WBA champion is more accomplished and naturally more talented than Broner, so the American will need to out-fight and out-brawl, ultimately pushing Pacquiao to his limits which is difficult to see with the style Broner possesses.
The 29 year-old is predominantly a counterpuncher who throws single punches rather than clusters of shots, which means Pacquiao will have to be the aggressor in the bout which will increase the probability of a knockout. However, Broner has a solid chin and it is hard seeing an outlook where he is stopped by Pacquiao.
Does welterweight benefit Manny Pacquiao?
Broner, for all his ability, is not a natural welterweight. The decision to chase the big money fights up at 140 and 147 pounds has played a significant role in determining the outcome of his bouts at elite level.
"Pacquiao doesn’t throw the same amount of punches now as he did in his prime, but he still throws many more than Broner"
‘The Problem’, at super-featherweight and lightweight, looked unstoppable. But the ex-champion doesn’t have the punching power to produce the same results against the bigger fighters. Broner will generally box to one plan and whilst Pacquiao isn’t a big welterweight, he has experience of facing much stronger fighters than Broner in his career.
The American will need to avoid being one-paced and throwing single punches to have a chance of defeating the champion, especially at a weight he has never seemed comfortable at.
Can bettors get an insight from Jessie Vargas?
Both Pacquiao and Broner have fought Jessie Vargas in recent bouts at welterweight and this is a key factor that bettors can analyse. Pacquiao managed to record a resounding unanimous decision while Broner fought to a draw in a fight in which he was far less convincing than the Filipino.
Pacquiao’s volume of punches landed was 46%, even though he threw 153 fewer punches in the fight, whilst Broner managed (according to CompuBox punch statistics), 194 landed punches from 507 punches thrown – a percentage of 38%.
The winner of this fight will be determined by who can implement their style best, and with Pacquiao seemingly having advantages in speed, power, and endurance, as was evident against Vargas, the betting edge rightfully sits with the champion.
Pacquiao vs. Broner betting: Where is the value?
There can be a menacing side to Broner, and he will need to rediscover the kind of form that saw him bewilder and destroy fighters like Antonio DeMarco and Gavin Rees if he wants to beat Pacquiao. When the brash Philadelphian fighter wants to fight he can, and he does have a huge age advantage, but his style appears tailor-made for the champion.
Broner's main flaws are his slow footwork and remaining on the ropes when he is under pressure. It’s as if he does just enough to lose in the big fights and the odds lean towards this being the case again. Pacquiao still maintains the ability to throw punches in bunches, from so many angles, whilst coming in and out of range - and this kind of style will represent a tricky task for Broner.
The Filipino is not finished yet with defying odds, and despite not being the Manny Pacquiao of old, expect the aging legend to have enough left to edge the majority of the rounds. For bettors who are hesitant to bet on Pacquiao due to his age, it might be worth looking to the total number of rounds, rather than betting on the 1X2 betting market. Over 10.5 rounds is priced at 1.369*, which could represent more value than betting on Pacquiao outright at odds of 1.336*.
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