On Saturday, October 17, Vasyl Lomachenko (14-1, 10 KOs) will face Teofimo Lopez (15-0, 12 KOs) inside The Bubble, at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, in a fight that has divided many fight fans’ opinions. Read on for some insight into the Lomachenko vs. Lopez betting odds.
Lomachenko vs. Lopez: Tale of the tape
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A close look at the Lomachenko vs. Lopez odds
Lopez holds the IBF lightweight world title, whilst Lomachenko is the owner of the WBC franchise, WBO, and WBA lightweight straps. The contest represents one of the biggest fights of the year and throws up some intriguing points to analyse.
The 1X2 odds suggest Lomachenko is the favourite, with an implied win percentage of nearly 80%*.
The Total Rounds is set at 10.5, with over 10.5 rounds priced at 1.540*, which suggests there is around a 65% chance that the fight will go long.
A brief history
With the gifted Ukrainian Vasyl Lomachenko installed as the betting favourite, facing off against one of the most exciting prospects in world boxing in Teofimo Lopez, this fight represents the chance for either man to become the first fighter since Pernell Whittaker to earn the title of undisputed lightweight champion of the world.
Lomachenko is a fighter who is set apart from almost all other boxers due to his amazing physical gifts inside the ring. A master of technique and speed, the two-time Olympic gold medallist has lost just twice in 418 fights as an amateur and professional, claiming a world title in just his third contest as a pro.
Lopez’s record currently stands at 15 wins, 0 loses and 0 draws, with 12 of those wins coming via stoppage. The 23 year-old has boxed a total of 60 rounds as a professional, meaning his fights last just four rounds on average, yet the New Yorker will start the fight as a significant underdog - further exemplifying the quality of fighter that he will be facing in Lomachenko.
Lomachenko vs. Lopez: Strengths vs. Weaknesses
When betting on boxing, especially when the fight you are betting on is at an elite level, it is always a key component to analyse both fighters strengths and weaknesses first and then look at how fighter A’s strengths will match up against fighter B’s weaknesses and vice versa over a 12 round period, before concluding with your prediction.
Firstly, one key factor in this fight is punch output. Lopez is more of a low volume fighter who likes to load up on his punches, whilst Lomachenko is extremely high volume, carrying similar energy throughout all 12 rounds of the fight.
The bout also pitches a master offensive fighter in Lomachenko, with years of experience at top-level boxing (both amateur and pro), against a relatively inexperienced fighter, albeit one with plenty of potential and talent.
Both boxers are skilled, but Lomachenko looks more skilled all-round, with Lopez winning a lot of his fights as a counter puncher against lower-level opposition, whilst Lomachenko is more of a lead puncher and offensive fighter, who sets a pace for 12 rounds.
The 23 year-old seems to thrive in situations where his opponent is easy to find and Lomacenko is far from that
When analysing Lomachenko, the Ukrainian is extremely slick. He's intelligent in the ring and exhibits the experience of a fighter who has amassed over 350 plus amateur fights. His footwork is special and it is hard to envisage Lopez’s one-shot style working on the Ukrainian if these are the tactics that he deploys, as there is little evidence so far in Lopez’s career to suggest that he can change his style up so drastically, at 23 years of age, to counteract Lomachenko’s strength over 12 rounds.
Lomachenko has seemed unfazed by the power of bigger fighters before (146lbs Orlando Salido or Gary Russell Jr, who weighed around 138lbs on fight night are just two examples), so it’s unlikely that he will be fazed by the power or size of Lopez.
Another aspect to consider is that both fighters have had 15 professional fights, so they have similar records, but in terms of quality of the opponents they have faced, Lomachenko is vastly ahead of Lopez. The 32 year-old is also a southpaw, and Lopez has only boxed one southpaw in his pro career, which is far from ideal preparation when you are facing arguably the most skilled southpaw on the planet.
A trickier one to analyse is the age gap; Lopez is nine years younger than Lomachenko, which is an important factor to take into account on two levels. One being that youth could play a part (as is so often the case in boxing), but unless Lomachenko has aged significantly overnight, he has looked far from a fighter who is well past his prime, proving that he can box at a relentless pace time and time again over the championship distance.
Both fighters will be coming off the biggest inactivity they have faced in their career so far, but this will most likely favour the more experienced fighter in Lomachenko, who already has the additional fight experience from the amateur and pro ranks.
Lomachenko vs. Lopez betting: Where is the value?
For Lopez to win this fight it is essential that he doesn’t allow Lomachenko any leverage in the first four rounds, and he has to attempt to stop the 32 year-old from gaining any kind of rhythm. Attack the body in spurts, pick his offensive periods, and apply systematic pressure whilst moving with Lomachenko and not from him (allowing him to dictate movement). Lopez has a one-inch height benefit and three-inch reach advantage, which can be crucial in a fight at this level – providing he knows how to use this to his benefit.
Lopez will need to keep Lomachenko at distance and beat him to the punch, be conservative, and use his reach advantage to full effect. The problem that he will encounter if the fight starts to go into the later rounds is that he has only gone the 12 round distance once in his professional career, so it’s worth asking the question whether this is the right preparation to fight someone of Lomachenko’s calibre.
For Lomachenko, measured, disciplined pressure and work rate is key - timing will also be key when letting his hands go, due to Lopez’s excellent counterpunching ability. The champion will need to use his superior footwork, pivot, make Lopez miss, and aggravate him, offsetting his style where he is almost confused as to what to throw next.
The fight is unlikely going to be the toe-to-toe war that many are predicting, since so many advantages over the 12 round distance sit in Lomachenko’s favour – and the Ukrainian is too smart of a boxer to allow himself to lose these advantages.
Lopez’s best chance in the fight is if he can impose himself and not have a boxing match, as if he does, it will make things far easier for Lomachenko. Once the Ukrainian has the front foot in a fight and starts controlling the centre of the ring, it is close to impossible for his opponents to negate what he is doing. Can Lopez negate this? At this stage of his career, it’s unlikely, as he is not a front foot lead type of fighter who throws combination punches, so his best chance is most likely landing one spectacular punch on the 32 year-old that proves decisive.
Yes, Lopez is a talented fighter with explosive power and impressive speed. Aside from that, he is still raw. The 23 year-old seems to thrive in situations where his opponent is easy to find and Lomacenko is far from that. Is Lopez the contender at this stage of his career to dethrone an all-time great fighter? Does he have the style to outthink, outsmart, and overpower the 32-year-old? He is a gifted fighter with explosive power and notable speed, but he is still inexperienced, and lacking experience at the highest level, so expect the speed and pace that Lomachenko fights at to cause Lopez a lot of problems from the halfway point after some competitive and exciting early rounds, with Lopez having his moments, but Lomachenko pulling away at the halfway point to secure a points victory.
Looking forward to Lomachenko vs. Lopez? Make sure to check out Pinnacle's predictions for all the other bouts on the night.