How to approach celebrity boxing matches

The behaviour and personalities of boxers has always been a big part of the build-up to a boxing match. In celebrity boxing matches, this is a key feature pre-fight due to the high-pressure of selling the event to their targeted audience, which can heavily influence bettors into analysing the event instead of the fight as a whole.

Whilst basic fight criteria like age, weight, reach, the rules of the fight, and who is training each fighter can help inform your predictions, it can also have bettors engrossed in the event for the simple reason that usually these matchups have no precedent, and the nature of uncertainty can lead to the excitement of betting on the fight.

• Read: How to analyse boxing styles

It is critical to pay attention to the advantages of one fighter rather than the noise coming from the other fighter. What a fighter thinks will happen can be narrowed down to give a more accurate prediction of what will happen.

Bettors should not be drawn into what a fighter thinks of himself or, more importantly, what his multitudes of fans think of him, as this can result in making less accurate predictions. Analyse the information available and make your own conclusions, and do not be drawn in by the hype or comments from people involved in the event.

The best analyses to make a prediction

So how do you predict a winner in a boxing match between two fighters that have never laced up boxing gloves or have a history of engaging in combat sports? We have a good idea about how to bet on boxing, but two novice untested boxers facing off for the first time is more difficult to predict.

Now there is little to zero chance of you discovering something about, for example, the NBA or the NFL that has not already been factored into the betting market. However, when there is no previous data available, with time and effort, there is a possibility to find an edge.

• Read: How can bettors find value betting on boxing?

In the modern age, a huge amount will be said online about celebrity boxing fights, and there will be plenty of video footage available to analyse the two fighters’ quality, so spend time analysing these and narrow down who has the better-looking qualities based on your own judgement.

If you are a boxing expert with previous betting knowledge on the sport you will be able to make a sound assessment based on this information, for example “who is a naturally bigger man?”, “Do either of the two fighters have any kind of previous one on one combat experience?”, “What style does fighter A look to have and what style does fighter B look to have?”, or “What trainer is the fighter using?” Assign the principles and a degree of self-assurance to your predictions and stick with that.

Making prediction with no previous data

With 10-ounce gloves, longer rounds, and no head guards, these novelty matchups create a competitive agenda that most of the competitors would not have experienced. It can be hard to find accurate details on tale of the tape stats, but we can rationally agree that when both fighters have never boxed before that they will be of a similar level of ability and experience.

"When a celebrity boxing match is set, and both fighters have zero or the exact same level of experience, then the percentage chance is far higher that the fight will be evenly balanced"

If you take two fighters of very similar skill set and experience then size will matter. There is a reason weight classes exist in professional boxing so the fighter that has a weight advantage will likely have a better percentage chance of winning. The amount of punishment a fighter can take is also related to your overall weight. Bigger body mass means the fighter will have more muscle, which means he or she should carry better punch resistance.

A taller fighter will usually mean that they have longer arms. And longer arms will result in having a greater reach, which allows the fighter to punch from range without the fear of being countered against. So between two fighters of equal skill and experience, the bigger man will carry a better percentage chance of winning.

• Read: How to make betting predictions with no data

When relating this to our predictions, a celebrity boxing match is still a fight, and fighting is often more mental than it is physical. Analysing discipline, mental strength and pre-fight preparations will play a key role in determining if we can gain an edge on a fight.

For example, is one fighter constantly training and in faultless condition? Is the other fighter looking less conditioned in appearance than the other? What is their general mentality like when producing their social media content? A mentally tough fighter is one who can motivate themselves to do what it takes to gain an edge over their opponent, and if bettors can spot this in the celebrity boxing participant’s qualities then they can also gain conceivably gain an edge in their betting predictions.

Bookmakers aren’t in the business of guessing predictions they offer a measurement of how likely something is to occur, and this is then represented in the form of odds. So in that respect, if you feel you have a good, solid understanding of both fighters strengths and weaknesses coupled with a broad overview of their mentality towards the fight then - based on what we believe will happen – we can arrive at a good idea of the chances of each fighter winning, represented in the form of odds, which can then be calculated against the bookmakers to see if you have potentially found an edge.

What can bettors learn from the KSI vs. Logan Paul bout?

Placing bets in the face of uncertainty is something that bettors will likely encounter when looking to bet on celebrity boxing matches. But learning the 10 Commandments of good prediction and how to make predictions when little or no data is available is a great way to gain a broader insight into how our idea of a future outcome is often heavily based on the past.

The first bout between KSI and Logan Paul ended in a majority draw, so straight away we have information to build on existing knowledge. The main differences in the second fight were that the bout took place in the professional ranks, which meant lighter gloves and no head guards, but if both fighters had progressed at a similar rate, then it was quite obvious that the difference in the result would be marginal (which it was).

"Bettors should not be drawn into what a fighter thinks of himself or, more importantly, what his multitudes of fans think of him"

KSI had home advantage last time, and also had added experience of having a fight prior to the first one. (Which Logan Paul didn’t) but many bettors at Pinnacle were conclusively drawn into betting on Logan Paul in the rematch based on physical appearance and hype around social media.

These two fights eventually turned out to be evenly-matched fights between two complete novices. This highlights that when a celebrity boxing match is set, and both fighters have zero or the exact same level of experience, then the percentage chance is far higher that the fight will be more competitive and evenly balanced, as neither fighter will have developed any kind of experience or ring craft to know how to win fights without taking risks.

One of the great and interesting things about betting on boxing is that no one knows the true probability on the outcome of a boxing fight. Bookmakers set odds based on their assumptions and use the market to come to a conclusion of what the odds should be. A profitable boxing bettor will try to exploit those probabilities implied by odds they believe to be incorrect much like we can also do when betting on celebrity boxing matches.

Now that you know the basics of how to bet on celebrity boxing, you can bet with Pinnacle’s great celebrity boxing odds.