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Two weeks ago
Mar 15, 2019

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia betting preview

Lightweight vs. Welterweight: Will size be a key factor?

Inform your Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia predictions

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia betting: Where is the value?

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia betting preview

Credit: Getty Images

In what has potential to be one of the best fights of 2019, welterweight world champion Errol Spence Jr. will defend his IBF 147-pound title against four-division world champion and current WBC Lightweight titleholder Mikey Garcia at AT&T Stadium – the home of the Dallas Cowboys. Looking for value in the Spence Jr. vs. Garcia odds? Read on to inform your Spence Jr. vs. Garcia prediction.

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A close look at the Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia odds

The Money Line odds suggest this is not a 50/50 fight. Spence Jr. is the favourite, and the odds propose the champion has approximately a 80% chance of victory. The edge here is primarily due to the size difference between the pair, with Mikey Garcia stepping up two weight divisions to take on the naturally bigger Spence.

The Total Rounds is set at 9.5, with over 9.5 rounds priced at 1.632*, which suggests there is around a 65% chance that the fight will be a long distance one. This is potentially a value bet when you analyse both fighter’s strengths and weaknesses.

Date: Saturday, March 16

Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas, USA+

Spence Jr. vs. Garcia form guide

The fight will be the first pay-per-view headliner for both fighters, which will bring added pressure to both camps in the build up to the fight. Spence Jr will hold a three-inch height advantage and four-inch reach benefit over Garcia, whilst the American is also a big welterweight, which is essentially the reason for the betting edge in favour of the champion.

Spence claimed the IBF title when he stopped Kell Brook in the 11th round in his hometown of Sheffield, England, and has since defended the title twice. A good win over former world champion Lamont Peterson and a straightforward mandatory defense against the overmatched Carlos Ocampo sees the champion enter the fight full of confidence.

Mikey Garcia is coming into the fight with Spence off the back of victories over Adrien Broner, Sergey Lipinets and Robert Easter Jr. Garcia is a legitimate world level fighter and brings many strengths to the table in this fight.

Against Broner, Garcia proved how good he can be. He out-boxed the bigger man and it is worth bettors noting that the size difference between the two fighters meant very little. Broner was intimidated by Garcia’s punching power in the fight and the sheer sharpness of his attacks which demonstrates that the 31 year-old will be solid at the weight.

In Broner, this is a fighter who went toe-to-toe with Marcos Maidana at welterweight during large parts of the fight, yet was afraid of going toe-to-toe with Mikey Garcia, which proves the kind of power and strength Garcia will bring to the fight with Spence (despite being the smaller man). Spence is one of the most dangerous men at welterweight but both fighters are among the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and so he will have to try to use speed, angles, and footwork, mixed with calculated attacks to overcome the height, reach, and strength that Spence possesses.

Lightweight vs. Welterweight: Will size be a key factor?

Mikey Garcia is stepping up two weight classes from his last fight at lightweight to challenge Spence Jr. for the welterweight title. The challenger has been training at Victor Conte's SNAC (Scientific Nutrition for Advanced Conditioning) facility in San Carlos, California, which should give Garcia backers confidence that the four-weight world champion has prepared to his maximum potential.

"In this fight it isn’t a conventional lightweight moving up in weight. It’s Mikey Garcia, a fighter who is already a multi-weight world champion"

For the Californian boxer, fighting is in his blood, and in his corner he will have the supervision of his father Eduardo and brother, Robert, two top-level professionals, who will be carefully monitoring the step up in weight and mapping out a game plan in order to beat Errol Spence Jr – so every new approach will be calculated.

However, stacking on considerable size in such a short period does put a difficult demand on a fighter’s oxygen capacity, predominantly in the actual fight. The question is, will Garcia’s body be used to carrying the extra weight and bulk in a fight after just three to four months of training and adjustments. Strength and conditioning in boxing is not prepared and finished in one fight. It’s accomplished over a period of time, so Garcia will certainly need to be at his very best technically to be victorious.

Does Errol Spence Jr. ‘live the life’?

The 29-year-old native of Long Island, New York in recent months has been seen mixing up his words and leaving journalists a little mystified about his persona. In boxing, the fighters who reach the highest level of the sport will train their body and mind every day.

Fighters are always learning, but sometimes top-level boxers can become complacent and think they know more than they do, so it’s then not so much about the quantity of training, but about the quality.

Spence has been seen hanging out with Adrien Broner & Gervonta Davis in prefight videos, while appearing drunk. In addition to this, there has been rumour in the boxing world that he has been spotted partying & drinking more regular than normal.

If Spence has not been living the life of a world champion then Mikey Garcia is not the type of fighter to be matched with, and the IBF champion could be handed a pitiless reminder of the fine line between success and failure in the most unforgiving of sports if this is the case.

Spence Jr. vs. Garcia betting: Where is the value?

The old adage in boxing goes – a good, big man always beats a good, little man and this is true to a certain extent. As a simplification it works, but it's far from a precise assertion. It will depend on the fighters in question, and the matter of styles in the fight.

In this fight it isn’t a conventional lightweight moving up in weight. It’s Mikey Garcia, a fighter who is already a multi-weight world champion with an abundance of pedigree, talent, and experience at the highest level.

Errol Spence Jr. is understandably the favourite in the fight but as much as Spence Jr. will have physical advantages, it’s hard to see a scenario where the champion out-skills and outboxes Garcia, who carries elite level skill himself – this makes over 9.5 rounds priced at 1.632* a potential value bet.

Analysing the Money Line odds, Mikey Garcia couldn’t stop Adrien Broner, Sergey Lipinets or Robert Easter Jr. at lower weight classes, so it’s hard to see a situation where he stops the bigger and stronger Errol Spence Jr., making it likely the bout goes the distance.

At odds of 1.249* on Errol Spence Jr, the line might not attract casual bettors, so a bet on Mikey Garcia at 4.200 is potentially the value bet. Garcia is a formidable fighter, and has proven in his career that he can deal with slick boxers and size, and is certainly skilled and talented enough to pull off the upset if he applies the correct game plan on March 16.

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