A close look at the Wilder vs. Fury odds
The Money Line odds suggest this is not a 50/50 fight. Wilder is the favourite, and the odds propose the American has approximately a 62% chance of victory.
The total rounds is set at 9.5, with over 9.5 rounds priced at 1.77*, which suggests there is around a 60% chance that the fight will go long.Date: Saturday, December 1.
Venue: Staples Center, Los Angeles, USA.
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Boxer vs. Puncher: What does history suggest?
The classic boxer vs. puncher is a style matchup that many believe favours the boxer but there are many attributes outside of this that bettors need to consider before making their Wilder vs. Fury predictions.
A skilled boxer with a weak chin against a not so skilled fighter with great power make for an exciting match-up. On one side, the boxer can outbox the less-skilled fighter. On the other side, the less-skilled fighter potentially only needs one punch to end the fight, but when considering two fighters at a comparative level, boxers will usually have the edge over punchers.
There are many examples down the years where boxers have been beaten by punchers which shows the variance which can occur when all other factors are not equal – like if the boxer is not physically conditioned to fight at a high pace for 12 rounds he will get stopped.
Fury, is the better boxer, but recent performances and overall condition will play a vital role when the pair meet.
Power is a great weapon to have, but it can mean very little at the elite level if the opponent knows how to nullify it correctly. Every fighter punches hard at world heavyweight championship level - it's just a matter of how hard.
Fury averages throwing 53 punches per round and is by far the busier of the two fighters – which demonstrates the style in which he is likely to approach the fight. Wilder lands almost 41% of his total punches, and is surprisingly the only active top 10 heavyweight to land 40% or higher with his total punches, so it confirms the style match-up we are analysing.
Fury, is the better boxer, but recent performances and overall condition will play a vital role when the pair meet. So this fight, cannot be analysed simply as a boxer vs. a puncher, and by collecting more proven data, will be the key finding a potential edge in the Wilder vs. Fury betting.
Analysing Deontay Wilder’s power
Big punchers usually come in two categories: Those who carry speed-based power and those with heavy hands. Then there is the uncommon fighter privileged enough to have both abilities – Deontay Wilder could yet fit into this category.
Punching hard, is effectively a natural gift to a fighter. You can improve punch power through conditioning and working on different techniques. But mainly, at top level, it is natural. One fighter hits another fighter and something materialises - another fighter hits someone and nothing occurs.
The 33 year-old possesses tremendous punching power, speed, and energy at any point in a fight and is a pure athlete – something that cannot be said of Fury.
Wilder also possesses a terrific uppercut on the inside – and was the punch that ended his last fight with Luis Ortiz. The American also has a good left hook when he is on the inside, and it is possible he will seek out a slightly different approach to try to land a knockout punch on Fury.
The reflexes and stamina will be the main issue for Fury after such a long layoff, and Wilder will know this. The 33 year-old possesses tremendous punching power, speed, and energy at any point in a fight and is a pure athlete – something that cannot be said of Fury.
The Steve Cunningham fight it was evident that Fury was frustrated and almost irritated at times with how he couldn’t pin the smaller man down. The former champion has a good defence, but it is still largely untested against the bigger fighters who are of a similar size to him.
- Read: How to bet on boxing
Wilder knows he is not a good boxer, and is largely low-volume when he is facing someone who is trying to box with him. He will bide his time and wait for any little mistake before pouncing on his opponent and it is likely Fury will have to weather an onslaught if he is to beat the champion.
Will Tyson Fury’s inactivity be key?
One thing bettors should not ignore, or believe, Fury is immune to, is inactivity. At world-level it is often the thing that decides a close fight. Additionally, discarding Fury’s recent opposition would also be irrational. Opponents like Sefer Seferi and Francisco Pianeta, were lined up not because Fury enjoys taking easy fights, but because he wasn’t yet ready for dangerous ones.
The 30 year-old, will bring size, character, and ability to the fight, and has it in his arsenal to even make Wilder look silly in the ring at times, but he will need to be on top form and switched on for every minute of every round to be successful in beating the WBC champion. Fury was once good enough; but we don’t know enough yet to know he is still at that level.
It is easy to be reminded about the ease in which Fury boxed, neutralised, and dethroned Wladimir Klitschko, in Germany back in 2015, and make no mistake that in the build-up to this fight, he will convince bettors that he will do the same to Wilder.
One thing bettors should not ignore, or believe, Fury is immune to, is inactivity. At world-level it is often the thing that decides a close fight.
Fury, did, close the Ukrainian down that night, and he did beat him convincingly. But, likewise, Klitschko’s negation to throw any kind of telling or meaningful punches, was as much a determining reason as to why Fury could win so comfortably.
Fury’s size was a big factor, and against Klitsckho he reduced the Ukranian to tactics of overthinking every punch he was about to, or wanted to throw. Klitsckho, became a safety first fighter after teaming up with Emmanuel Steward, and it had worked almost effortlessly up until that night. Keep the opponent at arm’s reach; never have to punch up (as he was always bigger than his opponents), or take any kind of risk. Which meant, he was always victorious without any kind of real test.
Deontay Wilder, for all his flaws in a ring doesn’t think like Klitsckho. He is wild and boisterous, and punches when he needs to punch. A ruthless finisher, Wilder has 39 knockouts in 40 fights. This style makes Wilder dangerous against anyone, which in-turn has made him the favourite to beat Tyson Fury.
The fight will likely be a classic matador vs. bull affair. With Fury trying to bewilder the awkward wilder, whilst the champion is waiting for his power shot to land on Fury, which inevitably usually arrives at some point.
Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury betting: Where is the value?
This fight is a classic case of hedging the outcome to guarantee a profit and minimise risk. The odds at Pinnacle give Wilder roughly a 60% chance of winning, while Fury is slightly less favoured, at around 40%.
The edge for Wilder is largely due to Fury’s inactivity, and the fact he carries serious power in the right hand. So by analysing both styles, and the strategies that they bring to the ring, it is likely the fight will be decided with Wilder by KO, or TKO, or Fury winning on points.
This strategy, will reduce your risk on unlikely outcomes and increase your chance of profit on likely ones. Your advantage is reduced, but you will be able to eliminate unlikely outcomes that have a chance of occurring.
Similarly, to Money Line betting in boxing, analysing the two fighter’s strengths and weaknesses is imperative to informing your prediction if you are hedging or considering other markets.
Despite the talk of a concussive KO occurring in the fight, the likelihood is that it goes long. Wilder likely won’t have the skills to solve the Fury puzzle, but will have the power to end the argument at any point. Fury knows this, and much like when he fought Klitsckho, will make it extremely hard for Wilder to land cleanly.
According to CompuBox, Fury was hit just 37 times in 36 minutes in his last outing against Francisco Pianeta. Wilder, is not Pieneta, but over 9.5 rounds at odds of 1.77* could offer value to bettors looking to alterative markets.
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