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Sep 14, 2018

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin betting preview

Canelo vs. Golovkin II betting: How will the fight be won?

What did the first fight teach us?

Inform your Canelo vs. Golovkin II prediction

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin betting preview

Credit: Getty Images

On Saturday, September 15, Mexico's Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Kazakhstan's Gennady “GGG" Golovkin will do battle again after their first fight was controversially scored a draw. Is there value in the Canelo vs. Golovkin betting? Read on for some expert insight to inform your Canelo vs. Golovkin predictions.

Live Canelo vs. Golovkin odds

What did the first fight teach us?

The first encounter ended in highly debatable circumstances as the result was heavily disputed. One judge scored the fight comprehensively in favour of Canelo 118 - 110, whilst the remaining two judges scored the bout 115 - 113 to Golovkin and 114 - 114 a draw.

The statistics from the first fight suggest Golovkin was the more active fighter over the 12 rounds landing nine of 30 jabs per round and more punches in 10 of the 12 rounds, yet judge Adelaide Byrd scored the bout 118 - 110 in favour of Canelo.

There is no Adelaide Byrd this time around. Dave Moretti, who scored the fight 115 - 113 in favor of Golovkin will be the only judge recycled for the rematch, the other two judges will be Steve Weisfeld and Glenn Feldman.

Canelo, despite the peculiar scoring, did have success as he connected with 42% of his power punches. GGG landed just 32% of his power blows after connecting with 46% in his previous 13 fights, highlighting Canelo’s high-level defence compared to previous opponents Golovkin has faced.

Golovkin not only threw 132 more jabs than Mexican (361 and 233 respectively), he was a lot more effective with it and landed 29.9% of the time compared to 23.6% from Canelo.

It was the middle and late rounds where Golovkin out-worked Alvarez and having thrown 202 more punches overall, his volume and aggression were two big reasons why many fans and experts believed he won the fight.

Will Canelo’s new physical state be a factor?

The Mexican fighter received a suspension for his failed test for Clenbuterol and pulled out from the original planned date for the rematch, then following a pair of failed drug tests, was suspended for six months but claimed the discoveries were the result of meat contamination.

Clenbuterol has fat burning properties and athletes have been known to use it to strip body fat quickly. The drug also increases aerobic capacity (the amount of oxygen the body can use during physical exercise) and improves the body’s ability to transport oxygen.

Canelo’s main weakness is that he regularly has a tendency to to gas out late in fights – especially when boxing at elite level – and many stated this as the reason behind the 28 year-old using the drug to enhance his performance.

The Mexican is undoubtedly a more talented fighter than Golovkin in terms of skill-set but is so severely muscled and throws so many punches with intent that he struggles to fight for three minutes of every round.

The 28 year-old does appear to have lost an awful lot of muscle mass for the rematch but will he lose a significant amount of punching power and physical strength? Or will the drop in muscle mass simply be a factor to enhance his performance and win rounds on the cards?

Canelo is likely looking to generate low amounts of force, but high intensity so he is resistant to fatigue – knowing the probability of him knocking Golovkin out is small.

Canelo vs. Golovkin betting: What can bettors expect?

After the first fight, both the odds and probable outcome have stayed roughly the same, with the probabilities suggesting Golovkin has around a 60% chance of victory compared to 40% for Canelo.

The pair both have high knockout percentages shared between them, but it is likely the fight will again be a distance fight – over 11.5 rounds has 70% chance of occurring.

If Golovkin again boxes, controls the distance, and counters with his jab he should still have enough, even with a few more miles on the clock than the first encounter, to defeat Canelo. The three-inch reach advantage and a one-inch benefit in height for GGG in conjunction with the first fights statistics pull together reason for the edge in the Kazakhs favour.

When a fighter has a reach advantage (as Golovkin has over Canelo) coupled with a power advantage, as long as that fighter understands how to use the reach advantage, it tips the probability of the outcome in their favour – something that bettors will have witnessed in the first fight.

Golovkin's boxing talents are intelligent and he is a fighter who has grasped a minimalistic style. Canelo has a much more flamboyant style. His moves are more noticeable and easier for bettors to be impressed by, nevertheless, it is efficiency that defines who the better fighter is and Canelo was not as effective as Golovkin first time around.

Canelo and his promoter Oscar De la Hoya evidently think they're getting GGG at just the right time. But the champion has plenty left in his tank even at 36. The big doubt when betting on Canelo vs. Golovkin will be whether GGG will get fair treatment from the judges but this time around bettors should expect more professional judging.

Want to improve your boxing understanding before the big fight? Read more expert boxing betting advice.

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