On Saturday, September 15, Mexico's Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Kazakhstan's Gennady “GGG" Golovkin will do battle again after their first fight was controversially scored a draw. Is there value in the Canelo vs. Golovkin betting? Read on for some expert insight to inform your Canelo vs. Golovkin predictions.
Live Canelo vs. Golovkin odds
What did the first fight teach us?
The first encounter ended in highly debatable circumstances as the result was heavily disputed. One judge scored the fight comprehensively in favour of Canelo 118 - 110, whilst the remaining two judges scored the bout 115 - 113 to Golovkin and 114 - 114 a draw.
The statistics from the first fight suggest Golovkin was the more active fighter over the 12 rounds landing nine of 30 jabs per round and more punches in 10 of the 12 rounds, yet judge Adelaide Byrd scored the bout 118 - 110 in favour of Canelo.
There is no Adelaide Byrd this time around. Dave Moretti, who scored the fight 115 - 113 in
Canelo, despite the peculiar scoring, did have success as he connected with 42% of his power punches. GGG landed just 32% of his power blows after connecting with 46% in his previous 13 fights, highlighting Canelo’s high-level defence compared to previous opponents Golovkin has faced.
Golovkin not only threw 132 more jabs than Mexican (361 and 233 respectively), he was a lot more effective with it and landed 29.9% of the time compared to 23.6% from Canelo.
It was the middle and late rounds where Golovkin out-worked Alvarez and having thrown 202 more punches overall, his volume and aggression were two big reasons why many fans and experts believed he won the fight.
Will Canelo’s new physical state be a factor?
The Mexican fighter received a suspension for his failed test for Clenbuterol and pulled out from the
Clenbuterol has fat burning properties and athletes have been known to use it to strip body fat quickly. The drug also increases aerobic capacity (the amount of oxygen the body can use during physical exercise) and improves the body’s ability to transport oxygen.
Canelo’s main weakness is that he regularly has a tendency
The Mexican is undoubtedly a more talented fighter than Golovkin in terms of skill-set but is so severely muscled and throws so many punches with
Canelo is likely looking to generate low amounts of force, but high intensity so he is resistant to fatigue – knowing the probability of him knocking Golovkin out is small.
Canelo vs. Golovkin betting: What can bettors expect?
The pair both have high knockout percentages shared between them, but it is likely the fight will again be a distance fight – over 11.5 rounds has 70% chance of occurring.
If Golovkin again boxes, controls the distance, and counters with his jab he should still have enough, even with a few more miles on the clock than the first encounter, to defeat Canelo. The three-inch reach advantage and a one-inch benefit in height for GGG in conjunction with the first fights statistics pull together
When a fighter has a reach advantage (as Golovkin has over Canelo) coupled with a power advantage, as long as that fighter understands how to use the reach advantage, it tips the probability of the outcome in their favour – something that bettors will have witnessed in the first fight.
Golovkin's boxing talents are intelligent and he is a fighter who has grasped a minimalistic style. Canelo has a much more flamboyant style. His moves are more noticeable and easier for bettors to be impressed by, nevertheless, it is
Canelo and his promoter Oscar De
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