On May 27, the IBF world welterweight title will be on the line as champion Kell Brook (36-1, 25 KOs) and the highly-touted American prospect Errol Spence Jr (21-0, 18 KOs) square off at Bramall Lane soccer stadium - the home of Sheffield United FC. Who will win? Read on for some expert insight into the Brook vs. Spence Jr betting odds.
Are bookmakers underestimating the advantages Brook holds?
Despite being the challenger to Brook’s crown and fighting in the champions’ home country, Spence Jr is the betting favourite at 1.561*. The 27-year-olds two biggest wins as a professional have come against nondescript opposition in Leonard Bundu and Chris Algeri. However, it is the manner in which the American has dispatched the pair that has ultimately led to the challenger being the odds-on favourite.
When a fighter cuts weight they become weaker and it almost certainly will have a detrimental effect on the body.
Algeri is a fighter both Amir Khan and Manny Pacquiao were taken the distance by but was subsequently destroyed by Spence Jr in April last year - whilst the normally durable Leonard Bundu (who also took Keith Thurman the distance) was dismantled in similar fashion. Bookmakers are placing plenty of significance on the comparison of these results so Brook (priced at 2.570*) could be a value bet for those that know how to bet on boxing.
Will weight be an issue for Brook?
If Brook is struggling at the weight then Spence’s tremendous body punching inevitably will become a factor in the fight. When a fighter cuts weight they become weaker and it almost certainly will have a detrimental effect on the body. Energy levels may hold strong for the first half of a fight, but they will ultimately diminish.
Bettors who want to use a boxing betting strategy will analyse the approach a fighter takes when preparing for a fight. Keeping up-to-date with both Brook and Spence Jr’s pre-fight preparations could help bettors understand how they will carry their weight in the fight and if they will be able to utilise their strengths - this will ultimately show if there is value in the Brook vs. Spence Jr odds.
Those with expert knowledge of pre-fight preparations, such as Kell Brook’s strength and conditioning coach Danny Wilson will be well aware of how a professional boxer deals with a change in weight division (in Brook’s case two weight divisions) - bettors who think Brook will struggle with the drop in weight from Middleweight to Welterweight might be drawn to Under 10.5 rounds at 2.250*.
Will Errol Spence Jr’s chin hold up at world level?
This is a key factor to consider in the Kell Brook vs. Errol Spence Jr betting odds. Spence hasn't yet mixed with a fighter of Brook’s calibre and hasn't been hit a lot by the level of opposition that he has fought thus far in his career.
If the rising contender’s chin proves solid the sky could be the limit for the Long Islander - but odds of 1.561* seem to be on the short side.
When analysing Spence’s fighting style, he is potentially vulnerable to left hooks (one of Brook’s signature punches). The American consistently kept his right hand low in his fight against the light-hitting Leonard Bundu and does seem hittable – often leaving himself exposed when unleashing his spiteful attacks to the body.
There will always be a question mark hanging over a rising prospect until they prove inevitably that they can go into the trenches and take clean punches at world-level. Spence hasn't fought anybody at the level of Brook, and the Sheffield fighter brings real sharp accurate power to the table.
How will the fight be won?
Ultimately the fight is a risk for Brook, but a calculated risk. The Englishman’s experience ought to give him the edge despite being priced as an underdog. Brook’s promoter Eddie Hearn has ensured the IBF champion has home advantage, and a 30,000 pro Brook crowd will unquestionably lift the Sheffield fighter.
Spence for all his talent and promise is still largely unproven at this next level. This is something the American will need to prove to justify such short odds of in a fight of this magnitude. Ability-wise Spence ticks all boxes, but ‘The Truth’ will not have faced a fighter with the self-belief of the IBF champion, who is expectant to win.
The key for Spence is how well he can take consistent shots from one of the sharpest punchers in the division. If the rising contender’s chin proves solid the sky could be the limit for the Long Islander - but odds of 1.561* in a fight at this level, on this stage, seem to be on the short side.
Now that you know more about the science of boxing, and have insight into the Brook vs. Spence Jr betting odds, put your knowledge to good use with the best boxing odds online at Pinnacle.