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Jul 12, 2016
Jul 12, 2016

Market movement in betting

Find out the significance of tracking the market movement in betting

Be on the right track to becoming a successful bettor

Market movement in betting
Understanding the significance of market movement is a vital betting strategy for bettors who hope to predict the winner of a sporting event. By taking notice of the odds movement at Pinnacle, bettors are on the right track to becoming a successful bettor.

The phrase ‘money talks’ is believed to be based on an Italian proverb that dates back to the 1600’s inferring how a financial incentive is often the most persuasive incentive for getting something done.

This remains true today, where the flow of money is also the most accurate way of determining the outcome of any future event. Understanding these market movements can help predict the future in everything from sports betting to important world affairs.

Few things could be darker than what was dubbed the “terrorism futures market” – a Pentagon-sponsored experimental online futures exchange launched at a Defense Department press conference in the summer of 2003.

The hope was that by allowing traders to speculate on wars, assassinations, and terrorism in the Middle East, that the exchange would help the security services in intelligence forecasting.

The idea that people could benefit from betting on the likelihood of future atrocities proved morally repugnant, and public outrage led to the idea being scrapped less than 24 hours after being announced.

While the “terrorism futures market” presented impossible moral issues, it demonstrated the high regard that ‘money talk’ is held in. Sports betting is no exception.

For example, the dramatic shortening of a tennis player’s odds is a good indication of a strong opinion about a change in that individual’s chance in a given match. It doesn’t guarantee he or she will win, but if you are going to bet on the match, it’s up to you to decide whose opinion you trust more, the markets or your own.

If the money is talking at Pinnacle, however, then you should certainly sit up and listen, thanks to the Pinnacle Lean.

The Pinnacle Lean

Pinnacle has built a reputation on being the place that everyone – bettors and bookmakers alike – watch to understand betting market sentiment. There are few more accurate indicators of the ‘right’ side of a game to bet on than the movement of Pinnacle’ opening odds, which are seen as a barometer of smart money.

Traditional bookmakers with higher margins (105% - 112%) receive far less volume, and therefore their prices are not efficient measures of the true market price. To know the “fair” market price on a game, simply check Pinnacle’s odds 1 hour before the start of the event.

Why is this? Because Pinnacle’ unique business model is built on offering the lowest margins (best odds) at the highest limits, and free of common account restrictions, It uses the “stack ‘em high, sell ‘em cheap” philosophy pioneered by Walmart, which attracts professional bettors looking to optimise their potential profit.

Numerous bookmakers will use Pinnacle’ odds – after adding their inflated margin – before opening the games for betting to their clients. Such is the significance of money talking at Pinnacle that the phenomenon has been given its own name in betting circles – the Pinnacle Lean.

Unlike traditional bookmakers, Pinnacle rarely takes positions on games, instead using their own highly professional traders to place early lines at reduced limits, and similar to an exchange, relying on sharp bettors to move the market, with the limits gradually increasing over time.

Handicap betting on American Football provides a great example of the lean, as although Pinnacle’ minimum stake is just £1, the standard game-day handicap limit is around £30,000 per bet and bettors can rebet an unlimited amount (after allowing the odds to refresh).

When the line moves on a game it always happens first at Pinnacle.

This combination of unbeatable odds and sky-high limits, alongside a policy of not restricting winning players, reinforces Pinnacle’ tag as the bookmaker for serious bettors.

In addition to these unique selling points, Pinnacle allows its players to monitor odds movement through its Dynamic Lines function which shows the direction odds are moving.

This means that players of all levels can get their bets down at high limits and great odds at Pinnacle. As the objective is to attract balanced action, the sharp punters can sometimes get two maximum-limit bets on their chosen team before the line moves enough to discourage them. When the line moves on a game – it always happens first at Pinnacle.

Such low-margin pricing generates tremendous volume, making the odds offered the result of an efficient market. Traditional sportsbooks with higher priced markets of between 105% and 112% receive far less volume, and their prices are not efficient measures of the true market price. If you want to know what the “fair” market price on a game is, simply check Pinnacle odds one hour before the start of the event.

This information can enable quick thinkers to make money in the long run by betting on odds that are too far off of Pinnacle’ odds (off-market), safe in the knowledge that it is the truest indicator of what the market believes the number should be.

On all major sports you will be a long-term winner if you consistently find a handicap or total which is 1.5 points better than Pinnacle with the same value odds.

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Betting Resources is Mirio's brainchild. He joined Pinnacle over 10 years ago as a Copywriter and since then has made building the content presence his mission. Along the way he has assumed responsibility for Social, SEO and CRM but Betting Resources is his baby and he stills finds time to contribute the odd article, usually around behavioural psychology and how it relates to betting. Fantasy dinner-party guests would include Daniel Kahneman, Nicholas Nasseem Taleb and Edgar Allen Poe.
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