The most popular betting market in soccer is the 1X2, but does it offer bettors the most value? Double Chance betting can be a better alternative to both the traditional three-way market and Draw No Bet option because it covers multiple outcomes. How can bettors use the 1X2 odds to calculate stakes for Double Chance betting? Read on to find out.
What is Double Chance betting?
In essence, Double Chance betting gives you the option to bet on two outcomes in a single game and eliminate the third option - this means you can bet on either the home team and the draw or the away team and the draw. Draw No Bet, by contrast, offers lower odds on your selection to win and simply refunds the amount staked on a bet if the match ends in a draw.
Bookmakers will often offer a win or draw market, but can you get better value by working out your own Double Chance odds from the 1X2 odds?
At Pinnacle, a +0.5 Handicap works perfectly for Double Chance betting. However, we do not offer a 0 and 0.5 Handicaps on every game and therefore, being able to calculate your own Double Chance betting odds will be beneficial.
How to calculate Double Chance odds
We have established that by betting on Double Chance, there will be two out of the three possible outcomes that will ensure your bet is successful. Consequently, odds are significantly lower than the straight 1X2 odds.
We can use a hypothetical example to help explain Double Chance betting more clearly.
Understanding how to calculate Double Chance stakes by using odds from the 1X2 market allows bettors to find higher value betting odds.
For example, you want to bet on Manchester City to beat Southampton at odds of 1.971. However, you believe Southampton may upset the odds and secure a draw but a 0.5 Handicap isn't available - something that would enable you to cover that option. Other bookmakers offer Southampton to win or draw at 1.25, is that better value than at Pinnacle?
Odds for the draw are at 3.880, and you are willing to risk €100 for this bet. Bettors who want a Double Chance bet should bet part of their €100 stake on Manchester City to win, and the remaining stake on the draw. Obviously, only one of these bets will win but we want the same profit in either case.
For the purpose of this example we will label the stake on Manchester City as S. The stake on the draw is therefore (€100-S). If Manchester City win, the bettor will win 0.971 x S from that bet (The 0.971 comes from 1.971-1); the profit is calculated as S x (Decimal Odds – 1), and the bettor loses the remaining stake that was placed on the draw (100-S).
Profit if Manchester City win:
0.971 x S – (100-S)
If the game ended in a draw, the calculation for the draw would see the bettor win 2.88 x (100-S) from the bet on the draw.
Profit if Manchester City and Southampton draw:
2.88 x (100-S) – S
As stated earlier bettors will want both profits equal. Using the above example, the equation to get equal profits would be as follows:
0.971 x S – (100-S) = 2.88 x (100-S) – S
This simple equation works out the value of S as 66.31. This means we should stake €66.31 on the Manchester City win and €33.69 (which works out as 100-66.31) on the draw.
So, if Manchester City win the bettor will earn (1.971-1) x 66.31 = €64.39, and lose €33.69 on the draw, with a net profit of €30.70.
If the game is a draw the bettor would win (3.88-1) x 33.69 = €97.03, and lose €66.31 on the Manchester City win bet, with an overall net profit of €30.72.
We can now make a simple comparison to another bookmaker to see if a Double Chance bet would have left the bettor with more or less profit.
Win or draw betting at another bookmaker
This shows that the bettor would have come away with €5.70 less profit if they had used the Double Chance option provided by another bookmaker (approximately 16% of the profit they would have got by covering both a Manchester win and draw individually at Pinnacle).
How to calculate Double Chance stakes
From the above example, you can derive a general rule for calculating stakes. If we label the total amount of money bettors want to risk with TOTAL, odds for a home win with HOME and odds for a draw with DRAW, then:
Stake on home win = DRAW x TOTAL / (DRAW + HOME)
Stake on draw = TOTAL – Stake on home win
If you want to just compare odds, to get effective decimal odds, you need to divide the return with the stake.
For the example above, the €100 staked would return €130.70 in the case of Manchester City win (profit is €30.70), therefore the decimal odds are 130.7/100 = 1.307.
The formula to calculate effective odds can also be worked out from the equations above.
Return from home win bet is:
HOME x DRAW x TOTAL / (DRAW + HOME)
Therefore after dividing your return with TOTAL, the odds appear to be:
Effective odds = DRAW x HOME / (DRAW + HOME)
The equations for the other two Double Chance markets (draw or away win and home win or away win), where AWAY stands for away win odds, are as follows:
Draw or away win:
Stake on away win:
DRAW x TOTAL / (DRAW + AWAY)
Stake on draw:
TOTAL - Stake on away win
DRAW x AWAY / (DRAW + AWAY)
Home win or away Win:
Stake on home win:
AWAY * TOTAL / (AWAY + HOME)
Stake on away win:
TOTAL - Stake on Home win
HOME x AWAY / (HOME + AWAY)
Now that you know the benefits of Double Chance betting, the Draw No Bet or win or draw option with another bookmaker probably doesn't seem so appealing. Understanding how to calculate Double Chance stakes by using odds from the 1X2 market will allow bettors to work out where the best value lies and gives you a better alternative.