In preparation for the start of the NBA Finals on June 1, we hosted a NBA Discussion Day on Twitter where some expert basketball bettors passed on their advice to our followers. Read on to find out what you should consider when betting on the NBA.
If you’re unfamiliar with what a Discussion Day is, they are hosted once a month on Twitter and focus on a particular sport or betting theme. The purpose of a Discussion Day is to help educate bettors and give them the opportunity to ask our experts for betting advice.
After a successful soccer betting Discussion Day and Super Bowl Discussion Day it was the turn of our NBA betting experts to answer questions about basketball betting. The most popular questions and the responses from our most recent Discussion Day are below:
Staking methods are an integral part of making money from betting. Predicting skill and getting the best value odds is all well and good, but if you don’t use the correct staking methods you won’t get very far. Many of our followers wanted to know what staking method our expert basketball bettors would recommend.
The Kelly Criterion is widely regarded as the most efficient betting staking method bettors can use. In addition to our popular staking method comparison article, we’ve also learned what a stock trader turned professional bettor thinks of the Kelly Criterion and exposed the flaws in a simplified version of the Kelly Criterion.
Reacting to information
Just like any other sport, knowing about something before anyone else is the key to successful basketball betting. During our NBA Discussion Day, many of our followers wanted to know how much line-up changes and injuries affect the odds and where to get hold of this kind of information.
As each case is different, there is no definitive answer for how much a line will move due to line-up changes or injuries, but it happens fast and the bettors that react before the odds do are the ones that benefit. Pinnacle has compiled a list of the best NBA Twitter accounts to follow to make sure you have access to information that will empower your basketball betting.
A trader’s perspective of basketball betting
Betting is a two-way market. Someone has to buy the odds (the bettor) and someone has to sell the odds (the bookmaker or trader). Considering that an understanding of how a bookmaker sets lines and adjusts them can help bettors get an edge; it isn’t surprising that we had plenty of questions on this subject.
In terms of how Pinnacle operates, our goal is to have an imbalanced book. Our low margin - which a system automatically applies - means balancing the book wouldn’t be sufficiently profitable. We use experienced and knowledgeable traders who manage our odds and even if they miss something, sharp bettors will help us adjust the line.
Applying an expected goals model to basketball
Statistics have always played a big part in betting on sports; especially American sports like baseball and basketball. Expected goals models have become increasingly popular in soccer betting and some of our followers wanted to know if a similar approach could be applied to betting on the NBA.
Basketball analytics is starting to discover that the number of three point shots attempted is a better metric of three point defence than the percentage of threes made - due to significant variance in the percentage of threes made in a single game. That said, the complexities of this subject are perhaps best addressed in a separate article.
Home field advantage
It is widely accepted that when a sports team plays at home, they perform better. Whether this is soccer, football or baseball, sharp bettors will often try and quantify the effect of home field advantage (HFA). Our NBA betting experts were asked if HFA (or home court advantage) is a more important factor in post-season games.
While the benefits of home court advantage are more pronounced during the playoffs, it is difficult to attribute a value to playing at home. The importance of the games will generally increase the crowd factor but travel arrangements and other potential factors are similar to regular season games.
Want to take part in our next Discussion Day? Follow us on Twitter.