Oct 20, 2020
Oct 20, 2020

World Series 2020 predictions: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Statistical World Series predictions

Who will win the World Series 2020?

Dodgers vs. Rays predictions

World Series 2020 predictions: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The 2020 MLB season has reached its finale. The World Series is about to begin and after starting with 30 teams in the race to lift the Commissioner’s Trophy, we’re now down to just two. Who will win the World Series 2020? Read on for some insightful predictions.

World Series 2020: Is it the best of the best?

Many believed that the condensed MLB season and reduced schedule would lead to more upsets and a higher chance of the lesser ranked teams making it into the postseason and beyond. However, in contrast to last season, we have seen little in terms of major surprises in the MLB postseason.

The American League was captured by the favourites for the pennant, the Tampa Bay Rays. While the National League went to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were the shortest priced team to win the World Series from the beginning of the playoffs.

The Rays’ odds for winning the World Series were set at 7.00 (14%) before the postseason began, with the Dodgers being given more than a 22% chance of going all the way and winning the World Series with their odds of 4.50. The Dodgers are currently the heavy favourites of the two teams left, with odds of 1.485* (66%). The Rays are the clear underdogs at 2.850* (34%).

In terms of the first game to get the series underway, the Rays are 2.570* on the Money Line with the Dodgers at 1.584*. The Over/Under for the first game is set at 7.5.

What have we learnt from the season so far?

Both teams were the standout performers from their respective leagues. The LA Dodgers’ final win-loss record of 43-17 (.717) was slightly better than the Tampa Bay Rays’ 40-20 (0.667) record, but both put in consistent performances over the shortened season and deserved their spot in the playoffs.

In terms of the route to the World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays have had to tackle the Toronto Blue Jays (winning 2-0 in the first round) before ousting the American League favourites the New York Yankees 3-2 and emerging victorious from a seven-game thriller against the Houston Astros.

The Dodgers have had a somewhat easier journey than their World Series opponents. They overcame the Milwaukee Brewers in two games and then swept past the San Diego Padres in three. Only the Atlanta Braves in the National League final managed to cause a stir, taking a 0-2 and then 1-3 lead in the series, but the Dodgers showed their resilience and won the final three games to take the series 4-3.

Rays vs. Dodgers: Who has the statistical edge?

The combined ERA of both teams is exactly 3.36, with the Rays allowing 3.27 runs on average and the Dodgers allowing 3.70. Defensively, the teams have shined throughout the playoffs, with both starting pitchers and the bullpens adding up to top five in the playoffs.

It comes as no surprise that the Dodgers are leading the way in runs (5.75 per game), hits (8.5) and batting average (.270). The Rays have exploded offensively compared to the regular season, but they are still far behind the Dodgers with their respective numbers: 4.07 runs per game and 6.64 hits and a batting average of .209.

Defensively, the Rays have a tiny edge through their excellent bullpen performance, but the Dodgers catch up the difference quickly with their extraordinary hitting department and all-around solid performance at bat.

Who will win the World Series 2020? Analysing the Accuscore simulations

According to Accuscore’s simulations, the Dodgers have been most likely winners of the World Series since the playoffs started and there has been little change since then. Before the League Championship series, the Dodgers were predicted to win the World Series against the Rays with a 60% probability and now the simulations indicate the Dodgers’ chances of winning are at approximately 65.4%. The most likely series result in these simulations is a 4-2 series win for the Dodgers (21.2% chance).

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

Outcome

LAD

TBR

Win World Series

65.4%

34.6%

Win World Series in four games

9.4%

3.8%

Win World Series in five games

15.6%

9.5%

Win World Series in six games

21.2%

10.1%

Win World Series in seven games

19.1%

11.1%

The pitching matchups are usually critical in an even set of games like the World Series. After running 10,000 simulations with the most probable pitchers for both teams – Kershaw, Buehler, Urias and Gonsolin for the Dodgers and Glasnow, Snell, Morton and Yarborough for the Rays – the simulations still indicate the Dodgers win being the most likely outcome with the combinations of each pairing.

The win probabilities range from 57% to 69%, with the table below showing the various combinations of starting pitchers and the resulting win probability to the Dodgers.

Rays vs Dodgers starting pitcher matchups

TBR Starters LAD Starters

Kershaw

Buehler

Urias

Gonsolin

Glasnow

69%

63%

67%

68%

Snell

66%

63%

63%

67%

Morton

63%

57%

62%

63%

Yarborough

64%

58%

62%

63%

World Series 2020 predictions: Odds vs. Simulations

Pinnacle currently has the Dodgers as 66% favourites to win the World Series, with the Rays being given a 34% chance. When comparing against the Accuscore simulations, this suggests there is a small amount of value in siding with the Rays, although there is less than 1% in it when comparing the odds and simulations.

A concentrated matchup between the Rays’ pitchers and the Dodgers’ hitters could be in store.

The most probable series result in Accuscore simulations is 4-2 for the Dodgers, with a 21.2% probability and once again Pinnacle’s odds are spot on: odds of 4.760* gives a 21.02%, so it’s difficult to make a play on this market based on the result of the simulations.

It could be said that with so much money invested in such a high-profile market, the odds are as efficient as they can be. There might be a bet in it for entertainment, but options for a value play at this stage are fairly limited (unless of course your own model suggests otherwise).

Whether you’ve found some value on offer or not, the World Series is sure to be a spectacle you don’t want to miss. It looks set to be a concentrated matchup between the Rays’ pitchers and the Dodgers’ hitters, but the those who might have the biggest impact on the series could emerge from where we least expect.

The Rays have blasted the most home runs in the playoffs and the Dodgers have been able to shut down their opponents at crucial moments, so it’s going to be an intriguing series to watch as it unfolds. Both teams have been able to stay healthy throughout the postseason, even with the condensed playoff-schedule allowing less rest than usual, so we are going to see the best players from the best teams in action.

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers overcome the Tampa Bay Rays? Get the latest World Series 2020 odds with Pinnacle.

Odds subject to change

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