Apr 3, 2017
Apr 3, 2017

2017 World Series betting: Anaysing the odds movement

Which teams are the bettors’ favourites?

Which teams are good value for money?

2017 World Series betting: Anaysing the odds movement

The 2017 World Series winner markets have shifted substantially since opening in December. Which teams have caught the attention of sharp baseball bettors? Which teams are a value bet in the outright market? Read on to find out all about betting on the 2017 World Series winner. 

December seems so long ago. The Cubs were champions, free agents were still free and futures offered nothing but speculation and possibility. Now, we know more. Below is a table with the teams that saw their odds changing the most since Pinnacle opened the 2017 World Series winner market.

2017 World Series Winner Odds

2017 World Series Winner Odds

Team

Opening odds (December 2016)

April 4th odds*

Odds movement

San Francisco Giants

19.00

13.40

-5.6

Los Angeles Dodgers

12.00

9.43

-2.57

New York Mets

23.00

12.47

-10.53

Toronto Blue Jay

23.00

21.70

-1.30

Texas Rangers

26.00

27.48

+1.48

Kansas City Royals

41.00

41.60

+ 0.60

Los Angeles Angels

101.00

95.88

-5.12

Cleveland Indians

9.00

9.31

+0.31

St. Louis Cardinals

26.00

30.29

+4.29

Seattle Mariners

31.00

31.82

+ 0.82

Colorado Rockies

41.00

47.11

+ 6.11

Want to learn how to make sense of the odds? Find out how to bet on baseball.

Pinnacle doesn’t move the markets; bettors do. That means that the teams with negative change of their odds have been the most popular targets for World Series futures among bettors. Let’s examine why those teams have been popular.

Which teams are the bettors’ favourites?

The number that really stands out is the price shift on the San Francisco Giants. Even-numbered year jokes aside, the -5.6 move is a significant movement in terms of odds - a startling shift in the context of the other moves in World Series markets.

The Giants are an unusual choice here in that they share a division with the powerhouse Dodgers and therefore face the likely fate of a Wildcard game, but having Madison Bumgarner starting in a sudden-death scenario has apparently emboldened bettors. Coming off a year where Joe Panik was injured, Buster Posey was sub-standard and the bullpen was shaky, the Giants have filled their biggest need by signing closer Mark Melancon, a move that has obviously given bettors confidence.

The Colorado Rockies might be a dark horse, but if they get full seasons out of young guns Trevor Story and David Dahl, there might be value to be had in the 2017 World Series Winner market.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the World Series favourites according to Baseball Prospectus. In December, their already-deep roster awaited news on potential re-signings of Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen and Rich Hill - all three eventually returned to the Dodger fold. Given their Prospectus projection, LA may still be a bargain with the further addition of Logan Forsythe seemingly nullifying last year’s anemic show vs. lefties.

The move on the New York Mets is tough to figure, though it does appear that their big three starting pitchers are certainly healthier this season. However, an improvement in Washington may leave New York fighting for a wildcard.

The Toronto Blue Jays move may simply be due to Pinnacle accepting bets from Canada, but not from the US. Toronto had already signed Kendrys Morales by December, but Jose Bautista’s return was uncertain back then. Joey Bats could also have caused that shift.

The Los Angeles Angels are longshots in bad situation. The LA outfit has an ageing roster and scant minor league reserves - the presence of Mike Trout on its roster forces some meagre attempt as success.

Bargains available via inflated odds

When some prices go up, others must go down. A few teams whose prices have improved have moved into must-consider territory.

Perhaps the biggest bargain on the board is the Cleveland Indians - they came within a run of winning the World Series a year ago and have only improved their chances. Cleveland’s run lacked then-injured starters Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, both now healthy, they lacked a full season of Andrew Miller who is now a full-time Clevelander.

Throw in lights-out lefty Boone Logan’s addition to the bullpen, and the Indians might actually be the World Series favourite. Winning the division is almost a certainty, and the market odds give bettors value on Cleveland being an average playoff team. They’re better than that.

The loss of Anthony Reyes is why bettors are sour on the St. Louis Cardinals, but this is a team that added Dexter Fowler and Brett Cecil. The Cardinals should compete with the Giants and Mets for the Wildcard and pays off almost twice as much as those teams do for a win. 

The Seattle Mariners, a small market team with little playoff history, continue to improve and offer legitimate hopes of a playoff appearance at a price that doesn’t reflect as much.

The Colorado Rockies may finally be developing a crop of starting pitchers who can survive Denver’s thin air to pair with a potentially devastating lineup. They might be a dark horse, but if they get full seasons out of young guns Trevor Story and David Dahl, there might be value to be had.

Get into the MLB action with the best World Series 2017 odds at Pinnacle. Alternatively, get to grips with the first half baseball betting strategy and bet on games throughout the season. 

Odds subject to change

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