For those new to tennis betting, it is worth noting that Grand Slam matches are played over the best of five sets, as opposed to the standard three on the ATP Tour, and the best of three set matches in the WTA version of the Australian Open.
Given that finalists need to play seven matches in a fortnight, fitness is an even more crucial facet of success for players in Grand Slam events. Therefore, obtaining victories - particularly early in the event - without playing long, five set matches is critical.
In Australia this situation is at least as important as any Grand Slam. Previous years have been played in extreme heat, with 2014 standing out in recent memory, which makes retaining energy for future rounds vital. The forecast for week one of this year’s event, however, is a more modest 30 degrees, which will be warm rather than hot.
Melbourne Park features a Plexicushion hard court surface, with historical hold/break data showing that court conditions should be around average pace - similar to the WTA event.
Given that finalists need to play seven matches in a fortnight, fitness is an even more crucial facet of success for players in Grand Slam events
Between 2013 and 2015, ATP players held serve 79.5% overall, and 79.6% in Melbourne. On this basis it’s very difficult to assume that conditions are as quick as the warm-up events in Australia in Brisbane and Sydney. Whilst the surface is the same as the Brisbane warm-up event, which does play fast, clearly other conditions, such as climate, compensate for this.
Measuring Djokovic’s superiority
Novak Djokovic is currently leading our outright winner odds at 1.699* and historical statistics do not make pleasant reading for bettors keen on opposing the world number one.
In the last decade, seven titles went the way of the top seed in the event, whilst 2008 and 2011 were the only events in those ten years that the top seed did not make the final. Djokovic has also claimed four of the last five tournaments in Melbourne.
Nine of the last ten years have been won by one of the top three seeds, with Stan Wawrinka’s shock triumph in 2014 bucking the trend. Indeed, Wawrinka was the first non top-five seed to make the final since Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2008.
These historical tendencies show that it has been very difficult for a non-elite player to make it to the Australian Open final and tournament outright bettors will need to factor this into their decision making.
As has been the case for several years, the following table illustrates the extent to which Djokovic is superior to the other top ten players (less the injured Richard Gasquet) on the ATP tour:
| Player | Last 50 matches v. top 10 opponents | 12 Month Hard Court win% | 12 Month Hard Court Service Hold % | 12 Month Hard Court Break Opponent % | 12 Month Hard Court Hold/Break Combined % |
|
Novak Djokovic |
43-7 | 93.1 | 88.8 | 37.3 | 126.1 |
|
Roger Federer |
35-15 | 85.7 | 92.9 | 30.4 | 123.3 |
|
Andy Murray |
23-27 | 79.5 | 83.0 | 31.7 | 114.7 |
|
Kei Nishikori |
22-28 | 73.7 | 87.1 | 26.6 | 113.7 |
|
Tomas Berdych |
15-35 | 75.0 | 85.0 | 28.4 | 113.4 |
|
Rafael Nadal |
28-22 | 70.6 | 84.3 | 27.5 | 111.8 |
|
David Ferrer |
13-37 | 75.9 | 78.0 | 33.1 | 111.1 |
|
Stan Wawrinka |
25-25 | 80.0 | 87.7 | 22.2 | 109.9 |
|
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
12-38 | 66.7 | 89.3 | 18.5 | 107.8 |
Djokovic boasts - by some distance - the best record against top 10 opponents on tour, as well as the highest percentage of wins on hard court in the last 12 months. In addition to this, he also tops the combined hold/break percentage table, leading Roger Federer by 2.8%. Considering all these metrics, it’s not a surprise whatsoever that he is the dominant figure in men’s tennis.
The Top Ten
Andy Murray is the second favourite with Pinnacle’ odds at 6.750* at the time of writing despite Federer having a better record against top ten players, as well as a higher win percentage on hard court in the last 12 months and a better combined hold/break percentage.
Given concerns surrounding Murray that he will quit the tournament and fly home should his first child be born several weeks early, his favourtism over Federer is a little surprising and probably due to the fact that as second seed he cannot face Djokovic until the final.
Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka closely follow Federer in the betting and it’s worth noting that both players have solid records against elite opponents (28-22 and 25-25 respectively). However, with combined hold/break percentages over 10% below Djokovic and Federer, they will have to play at their best level to achieve a place in the final in Melbourne.
Nadal in particular will have mental scars from recent matches with Djokovic - the Spaniard has now lost nine of his last 10 against the Serb, and the nature of his 6-1 6-2 defeat last week in the final at Doha will certainly not help him.
Kei Nishikori rounds off the players currently priced below 30.00 in the outright market, and on his day the Japanese player can beat the best. However, his best is far from guaranteed, as is his fitness. A three set defeat to Bernard Tomic last week in Brisbane was not ideal preparation.
Rounding off the top ten players in the draw, the trio of Berdych, Ferrer and Tsonga are difficult to consider as likely winners. All three have win percentages of 30% or below against top 10 opponents in their last 50 matches and only their ardent fans will be optimistic that they can beat three top 10 players to claim the title. Of these three players, Berdych - who gave Djokovic his closest match in Doha last week - looks to have the best chances.
Potential upsets
Marin Cilic, Grigor Dimitrov, Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic are all priced below 100.00* in the current outright markets, although there are various doubts over all four players. None have hold/break stats which would be placed above bottom-placed Tsonga in the list, and Dimitrov in particular has a very poor record against top players.
The Australians, Kyrgios and Tomic, do not lack confidence and the brash Kyrgios will fancy his chances against any opponent. However, Kyrgios’ weak return game will almost certainly hinder him, rendering him likely to play long matches - far from ideal in this supreme test of fitness. Tomic has an excellent record in his home country although it’s worth noting that his success usually comes in quicker conditions than he is likely to find at Melbourne Park.
Based on the statistics, Novak Djokovic is the player to beat at this year’s Australian Open and he thoroughly deserves his status as a heavy favourite. However, there is plenty of value to be found by using the above statistics in matches involving two top ten opponents as well as in establishing which players are more likely to join the Serb in the final.
Ready to get into action? Get the best tennis odds on the ATP Australian Open Round 1 and tournament winner as well as the highest limits online at Pinnacle.
*Odds are subject to change
