Ted's thoughts on the upcoming EPL & Summer transfer activity
To start the event, we asked Ted for a series of predictions on the EPL now that the transfer window had closed:
Pinnacle: Best transfer of the window from a club perspective?
Ted: Single best transfer? Can I say not Shane Long? So ridiculous! That one makes me angry. What are you people doing?? The best upside move has to be Mario Balotelli. I really like the Gylfi and Cesc deals, both of which are paying off in the early season.
Pinnacle: Will Mario realize that upside?
Ted: It's up to Mario, isn't it? At the end of the day, it's up to Mario. I think he's maturing and Rogers might be the man to get him there. It's a choice though.
Pinnacle: Worst transfer of the window?
Ted: If it's actually a transfer, Falcao might be.
Pinnacle: Which EPL club had the best transfer window?
Ted: Chelsea. Signed great players, got good prices for their sales. They have a lot of talent there.
Pinnacle: Who will be our EPL champion?
Ted: Flip a coin, Chelsea or Man City? I'm not picking one of those two. You're not forcing me into a choice I don't want to make!
Pinnacle: Who else is going to Champions League for 2015-16?
Ted: Those two plus Liverpool and Arsenal. Spurs and United for Europa league
Pinnacle: Who will we see relegated in EPL?
Ted: Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, and who the hell knows :D
Pinnacle: EPL Golden Boot?
Ted: Sturridge or Diego Costa
Pinnacle: Who will win EPL player of the season?
Ted: Raheem Sterling. Gotta gamble a little sometimes.
Pinnacle: OK Ted, one more item before we get to the questions. Club grades (out of 10) on this transfer window: Arsenal?
Ted: 6 - Added two quality forwards and RB/CBs. Needed a stud DM and another CB. Risk by not buying more.
Pinnacle: Chelsea?
Ted: 9 - Could have added one more midfielder.
Pinnacle: Everton?
Ted: 7 - Finally have a good set of Forwards, but you'd like to see them buy more kids to develop.
Pinnacle: Liverpool?
Ted: 10 - Bought a whole second team. Huge upgrades at fullback. Reinvested well.
Pinnacle: Man City?
Ted: 7 - Didn't have many needs but they keep giving big deals to older players
Pinnacle: Manchester United?
Ted: 7 - I want to be harsh on them because they overpaid consistently, but unlike last year they actually started to address their needs. They have too many attacking midfielders, but are definitely better now than last season.
Pinnacle: Spurs?
Ted: 5 - Nothing flashy. Added two better defenders. Their best signing was their manager, and they got one of the best available.
Questions from our followers
Q1. From @DavidHeaney1978:
People hate to risk $10 to win $1. Is there pressure to offer value on the goliath favorites? pic.twitter.com/R0n7A2DGed
Ted: That's why Asian handicaps exist. People don't want to bet on a giant favourite, but are happy to bet on how many goals they'll win by. I will say our volume on 1X2 (ML) has grown rapidly in the last two years. We offer the best prices in the world and customers have responded.
Q2. From @Scott_Daly_:
How many points is not playing in Europe worth a season?
Ted:It really depends on the size of your squad. Europe means your injuries build up, which limits your best players. The difference can be 10-15 points for small teams.
Q3. From MWoodcock1:
How big an impact does 7 points already have (or not have) on your prediction for Villa to go down?
Ted: It helps, but they have 7 points and 5 shots on target in three games! Three games is a very small sample size.
Q4. From @ScottR53:
Any guesses for unexpected team to end up in the top 3?
Ted: Top 3 is just too hard to crack. Chelsea and City are both really strong and I love Liverpool's transfer window. LFC could struggle...from 3-6 is a guessing game, but Man U have started slowly and Spurs aren't there yet.
Q8. From @footballfactman:
How do odds compilers price teams up preseason? What goes into the mix?
Ted: Preseason is a lot of guesswork. That's one reason I call it a customer appreciation product. Example: When Tony Pulis left Palace, it changed things. It was probably really good for whoever got there first.
Q9. From @jamieWalsh92:
Do you think any clubs in the EPL use analytics to help inform transfer policy post-Comolli?
Ted: Absolutely. I think Allardyce might. Liverpool and Arsenal do. City have a big analytics team.
Q10. From @Parlaypro:
Which team in EPL do u believe the lag from #WorldCup impacted the most? I think Man U’s Robin Van Persie has felt that impact.
Ted: Robin is injured, so you're right. It's tricky to say beyond that. World Cup does cause extra fatigue/injuries, which is why Arsenal didn't have the Germans for the first couple of games.
Q11. From @Scott_Daley_:
Why do you think bookies in general are so bullish on Chelsea over City? Most make them more than twice as likely to win it?
Ted: They weren't more than twice as likely to start the season. Bookies react to both public perception and points. City lost to Stoke at home. That changes the probability.
Q13. From @MWoodcock1:
Has there ever been an EPL game where pre match the draw has been a loser in your book (does it happen often?)?
Ted: Certainly. We lose on all outcomes over the course of a season. There are a lot of matches every season.
