Heading into the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there is always some degree of uncertainty. The nature of hockey is that it can lead to less predictability than sports that might be higher scoring and have a stronger link to statistical underpinnings.
In playoff hockey, a hot goaltender can flip the script in a hurry. An injury, a bad bounce – a post here, a crossbar there – and the season can go sideways. For that reason, it’s not always as simple as taking the favorites and watching them coast through to the second round.
Last season, the favorites ruled the first round, with the team that had more points during the regular season winning seven of the eight series. The only exception was the Colorado Avalanche defeating the Winnipeg Jets and the Avs were favored to win the series.
In 2023, the Panthers, Lightning, and Kraken all knocked off higher-seeded teams in the first round.
This doesn’t mean that underdogs will rule the postseason, but it should not come as a shock if a couple of underdogs win in the first round.
Here is a look at the first-round matchups, which begin Saturday, April 19.
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens
The Capitals snuck into the playoffs last season before getting bounced out of the first round. They went to work in the offseason and upgraded their roster, adding defensemen Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy as well as center Pierre-Luc Dubois and wingers Andrew Mangiapane and Taylor Raddysh.
The Canadiens surged late in the season to squeak into the playoffs. Can they keep it up against the first place Capitals?
They have been a solid puck possession team with great goaltending when Logan Thompson has been healthy. Thompson hasn’t played since April 2 and surrendered 10 goals on 37 shots in his last two starts before he suffered an upper-body injury, so this is one area of concern heading into the playoffs. Charlie Lindgren took a step back this season and that could leave the Capitals vulnerable in net.
The Capitals do have firepower, with five forwards – Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, Aliaksei Protas Dylan Strome, and Connor McMichael – that scored at least 25 goals this season and Chychrun added 20 from the blueline, and that will need to be their path to success.
Can they do it against the surging Canadiens?
Making the playoffs was unexpected for the Canadiens, but they finished the season going 15-5-6 after the 4 Nations Face-Off to climb into the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault was excellent down the stretch, which was enough to get the Habs into the postseason, but he will need to maintain that level of play if Montreal is going to pull of a first round upset.
Even as they were winning late in the season, the Canadiens were not a strong puck possession team, controlling 45.2 percent of score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and 46.5 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play in the team’s last 25 games.
What the Canadiens will need is for their best players to elevate their performance even further. Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and rookie defenseman Lane Hutson have all had strong seasons and they will have to lead the way against Washington.
Highly touted rookie winger Ivan Demidov just came over from Russia and played in the last two regular season games and has the skill to be something of a wild card going into the postseason.
Can the Canadiens pull off the upset? It is not the most likely scenario but, given the relative prices for the series, it is the side that offers the greater potential value.
Pick: Canadiens (+209*)
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators
It has been a long time since the Maple Leafs won the Stanley Cup (1967, of course), but they have also won just one playoff series since 2004, so there is a lot of postseason angst built up for a talented team that finished first in the Atlantic Division during the regular season.
Can Toronto's Core Four get the job done in the postseason?
The Maple Leafs’ Core Four continues to produce. Mitch Marner hit 100 points for the first time in his career, William Nylander finished second in the league with 45 goals, Auston Matthews was considered a disappointment with 32 goals and 77 points in 66 games, and John Tavares tallied 38 goals and 74 points in 74 games.
On top of that, the Maple Leafs got 29 goals from Matthew Knies and 20 from Bobby McMann, so this team can put the puck in the net.
Toronto’s defense can be strong if Jake McCabe is healthy, as he was banged up late in the season. Chris Tanev has been a big upgrade in a shutdown role, and he will be crucial to the Leafs’ postseason hopes.
In goal, Anthony Stolarz has been great, posting a .926 save percentage, but played in a career-high 34 games this season, so it’s difficult to expect him to handle a full-fledged No. 1 role in the playoffs.
The trouble is that the Maple Leafs are a poor puck possession team. It’s one thing for a team like Montreal to be a subpar possession team while earning the last playoff spot. It’s another for the Maple Leafs to have similar possession numbers over the last 25 games while winning the division.
Toronto has the high-end talent to win, but there is some vulnerability here.
One advantage for the Maple Leafs is that the Senators are not necessarily equipped to take advantage of that deficiency, since the Sens also had below-average possession numbers across their last 25 games.
The big issue for the Senators is the health of captain Brady Tkachuk, because it’s Tkachuk’s aggressiveness and ability to turn a game into a street fight that makes the Sens an intriguing underdog. The Sens don’t have the high-end scorers that the Leafs have, but if the game turns ugly, Tkachuk can cause a lot of havoc and that could play in Ottawa’s favor.
Ottawa’s defense puts a lot on Jake Sanderson, who improved after a tough start to the season, and veteran Thomas Chabot, who had an excellent all-around campaign. Will they be able to neutralize the Leafs’ top scorers?
Furthermore, the Senators do have a proven veteran netminder in Linus Ullmark, and he has had a strong season. Ullmark is more established with perhaps more reason to trust him going forward.
The Maple Leafs should win this series and given their previous playoff defeats, it would be disastrous if they didn’t, but that also makes the price to take them a little more expensive.
Pick: Maple Leafs (-185*)
Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils
For advanced stats nerds, this could be considered The Dellow Cup, as Tyler Dellow moved from Vice President of Analytics for New Jersey to Assistant GM in Carolina in the offseason.
The Devils without Jack Hughes may have a hard time keeping up with the Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes continue to be the league’s best possession team, ranking first in Corsi percentage and first in expected goals percentage. They took a shot with their in-season acquisition of Mikko Rantanen but pivoted when it became clear that he wasn’t going to sign an extension. As a result, they have rookie winger Logan Stankoven in a spot that effectively belonged to Martin Necas at the start of the season.
The ‘Canes have a reliable forward group but probably lack the game-breaking scorers to put them over the top.
On defense, Carolina has a veteran crew, including Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns, Dmitry Orlov, Shayne Gostisbehere, Sean Walker, and Jalen Chatfield. They also have rookie defenders Scott Morrow and Alexander Nikishin – just signed out of the KHL – as blueline options, so that depth on defense should be an asset.
In recent seasons, the Hurricanes have tried to minimize their dependence on one specific goaltender. This season, Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen split the duties and will likely do so to some degree in the playoffs.
The Devils faded down the stretch, not so coincidentally after losing center Jack Hughes and defenseman Dougie Hamilton to injuries. Hamilton should be in the postseason lineup, but it’s Hughes’ absence that should leave a bigger hole for the Devils, who lack elite offensive talent without him.
Devils captain Nico Hischier has had an excellent season and he’s a top two-way player, but the Devils need more firepower if they are going to keep pace in this series.
Jacob Markstrom could make a difference for the Devils in this series, but he has a .869 save percentage in 13 games since returning to action at the beginning of March.
All of that leads to what appears to be a convincing Hurricanes win in this series.
Pick: Hurricanes (-270*)
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
The Battle of Florida pits two contenders against each other in this competitive first round series.
The Lightning and Panthers meet in a gripping Battle of Florida.
The Panthers are the defending champions, and they have looked strong for much of this season, too. They added left winger Brad Marchand and defenseman Seth Jones before the trade deadline, so they ought to be ready for a tough matchup.
At the same time, winger Matthew Tkachuk has not played for the Panthers since suffering a lower-body injury during the 4 Nations Face-Off and while he is expected to be ready for the playoffs, who knows how effective he will be or if he is even at 100 percent?
The Panthers bounced the Lightning from the playoffs last year and Tampa Bay is surely looking for some revenge. It isn’t merely a matter of wanting it, though. The Lightning have been a better team this season and improved their roster at the trade deadline, bringing Yanni Gourde back from Seattle. They also acquired Oliver Bjorkstrand, but the veteran winger is injured and may not return in time for this series.
Nevertheless, Nikita Kucherov leads the league in scoring for a second straight season and offseason additions Jake Guentzel and Ryan McDonagh have made the Lightning more dangerous. Brandon Hagel emerging as a 90-point player hasn’t hurt, either.
While Tampa Bay has a quality lineup, one of the main reasons to like them in this series is the play of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. It has been a strong season for him overall, but since the 4 Nations Face-Off, he has a .927 save percentage in 20 starts.
It’s not that Sergei Bobrovsky has been a problem for Florida, but he hasn’t been on Vasilevskiy’s level and that should be the difference in this series.
Pick: Lightning (-104*)
Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues
After finishing the season with the best record in the NHL, the Jets are significant favorites in their first-round matchup with the Blues.
Can the Blues carry their late season charge into the playoffs?
Not only did the Jets have the league’s best record, but they had the best goal differential and owned a sparkling 30-7-4 record on home ice. They have the best goaltender on the planet, Connor Hellebuyck, and that should give them a good chance to contend.
The Jets do have some injuries of note, though. Nikolaj Ehlers is considered week-to-week heading into the playoffs and Gabe Vilardi has been out for more than three weeks with an upper-body injury. If the Jets are missing a winger from both of their top two lines, that could be a problem.
The Blues hit the playoffs following a brilliant finish to the regular season, going 19-4-2 in their last 25 games.
Dylan Holloway enjoyed a breakthrough season for the Blues, but he is also dealing with a lower-body injury, so his status for the start of the series is in question.
Playmaking center Robert Thomas led the NHL with 40 points in 26 games after the 4 Nations Face-Off, so he will be a crucial part of the Blues’ efforts to upset the Jets.
St. Louis did bolster its lineup late in the season by signing Jimmy Snuggerud, their 2022 first-round pick who had 51 points in 40 games as a junior at the University of Minnesota. He picked up four points in seven regular season games for St. Louis, which does help the forward depth at the very least.
Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington has shown that he can rise to the occasion, during the Blues’ 2019 Stanley Cup run, and for Canada at the 4 Nations Facel-Off, but he tends to be inconsistent overall. Going against the league’s best goaltender does look like a tough matchup.
Ultimately, the Jets have the track record that suggests that they should win the series, but the price makes the Blues more appealing as an underdog.
Pick: Blues (+179*)
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild
Although the Golden Knights finished atop the Pacific Division during the regular season, they do face a challenging first round matchup.
Can Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek lift the Wild to an upset of the Golden Knights.
The Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup in 2023, so they have a roster full of players with that championship experience and center Jack Eichel is having the best season of his career. Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Ivan Barbashev, and Pavel Dorofeyev headline Eichel’s supporting cast, but Vegas has a slew of proven veterans throughout its lineup.
Provided that Alex Pietrangelo is healthy, the Golden Knights have a strong defense as Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb, Nicolas Hague, and Zach Whitecloud were all part of the Cup-winning team and they added Noah Hanifin last season.
It’s a strong team in front of goaltender Adin Hill, who played in a career-high 50 games this season and continues to provide better-than-average results.
So why should the Golden Knights be concerned?
The Wild captured the first Wild Card spot in the West with a 45-30-7 record, but they were 25-13-3 with star winger Kirill Kaprizov in the lineup. Kaprizov and center Joel Eriksson Ek both missed most of the second half of the season, returning to action a little over a week ago.
Can the Wild, now healthy, play like they did early in the season? That’s the question that hangs over this series. If they can, they could give the Golden Knights a scare.
Wild goaltender Filip Gustavsson has also rebounded with an excellent season after slumping in 2023-2024.
While a straight-up pick should still lean towards Vegas, the disparity in price makes the Wild a lively underdog in this series.
Pick: Wild (+213*)
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche
In a match-up that could be the best of the playoffs, the Avalanche and Stars meet in the first round, with the Avs as Stanley Cup favorites and Stars as second favorites at Pinnacle.
Two Stanley Cup favorites meet in the first round, and the Avalanche appear to have the healthier side going into the matchup.
The Avalanche made bold moves this season, trading Mikko Rantanen to Carolina for Martin Necas and then ultimately using their salary cap flexibility to bring in Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle at the trade deadline. That improved depth served the Avs well and they were a dominant team down the stretch, going 16-7-2 in their last 25 games.
The difference for the Avalanche could be that they have game breakers. Center Nathan MacKinnon and defenseman Cale Makar are two of the top, say, five players in the world and when the games get tight, it is helpful to have guys who can make plays that few others even dare to attempt.
Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog has missed the past three seasons, but completed a rehab assignment in the American Hockey League and could find his way into the playoff lineup at some point.
The Stars have an excellent team, and Tyler Seguin has returned to their lineup, but injuries could be a big factor for Dallas.
Defenseman Miro Heiskanen is out for the first game, but some reports suggest he could miss the series, and that poses a real problem, as he is the one Stars defender who would have the best chance to contain MacKinnon.
Additionally, Jason Robertson was injured in the last regular-season game, which would obviously be bad news for Dallas. Few teams can lose a 35-goal, 80-point forward and not feel it.
The price has become increasingly expensive for the Avalanche to win the series, but it’s hard to argue because they are the healthier side going into this epic matchup.
Pick: Avalanche (-160*)
Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have eliminated the Kings from the playoffs in three straight years, but this could be the year that the Kings exact some revenge.
Mattias Ekholm's injury could be devastating to the Oilers, who count on his reliable defensive play.
In their last 25 games, the Kings rank fourth in Corsi percentage and seventh in expected goals percentage and those are underlying numbers that fit with a legitimate contender.
That is especially the case when a team has strong goaltending, and the Kings do, with Darcy Kuemper having one of the best seasons of his career with a .921 save percentage.
On top of that, the Kings have improved their scoring depth. Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar, and Kevin Fiala are all established scorers, but they have depth with Quinton Byfield, Warren Foegele, Alex Laferriere, and Trevor Moore all putting the puck in the net. The trade deadline addition of Andrei Kuzmenko makes the Kings even more formidable offensively.
Just as the Wild are so much better with Kaprizov in the lineup, the Kings were 19-8-2 with defenseman Drew Doughty playing this season.
The Kings take this lineup against an Oilers team that still has Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at the top of the depth chart, but their supporting cast has not delivered this season, and it will be hard to advance in the playoffs without second and third-line scoring. In the Oilers’ case, scoring at even strength is a relative area of concern.
The biggest problem for the Oilers going into this series, though, is the injury to veteran defenseman Mattias Ekholm. In the past two seasons, there are 214 defensemen that have played at least 1000 five-on-five minutes and Ekholm leads all of them with a Corsi percentage of 59.9 percent and expected goals percentage of 60.4 percent.
Losing Ekholm makes this a much more challenging series for the Oilers and gives the Kings a very good chance to pull off the upset.
Pick: Kings (+102*)
*Subject to change.
