Chisora vs. Fury II betting

Which boxer has taken the better path?

In the first bout Tyson Fury beat Dereck Chisora by a unanimous points decision after 12 ferocious rounds at Wembley Arena in July 2011. Fury, unbeaten in 22 fights, was 117-112, 117-112 and 118-111 on the three judges scorecards and looked relatively untroubled against a clearly overweight Chisora. The 30-year-old weighed in at a career high 261 pounds, but should be much better prepared for their upcoming rematch on July 26^th having weighed in at 235 pounds in his more recent bouts.

Since that defeat, Chisora has faced Robert Helenius, Vitali Klitschko and David Haye; three of heavyweight boxing’s biggest names. Even though he lost all three of those fights, Chisora has pitted himself against the best in the business and will be more experienced than when he fought Fury back in 2011.

Fury on the other hand has kept his unbeaten record ticking over slowly but surely, with early knockout victories over Steve Cunningham and most recently Joey Abell in February 2014.

Bettors must decide whether or not Chisora’s new focus and journey against the division’s elite will ensure he is better placed to become the first boxer to beat Fury?

Chisora’s high-energy vs. Fury’s long reach

Tyson Fury is the 1.465 favourite for the upcoming rematch – which according to the odds give him a 68.26% chance of winning. In comparison Chisora can be backed at 2.800, giving him a 35.71% chance of an upset.

When looking for value in our previous boxing previews – Pacquiao vs. Bradley II and Froch vs. Groves II – we explained how psychology could influence the outcome of a rematch by analysing loss aversion and regression to the mean. Ahead of Chisora vs. Fury II, the outcome of the fight could simply come down to the boxers’ personal statistics.

Not only is Fury 19cm taller than Chisora, he also has a 28cm longer reach, which will make it very difficult for Chisora to get inside and cause Fury real damage. David Haye (10cm), Vitali Klitschko (15cm) and Robert Helenius (13cm) all had significantly longer reaches than Chisora’s 188cm, and all three of these boxers managed to keep him at bay and pick up the victories.

On the other hand, Chisora may settle for the left handed jabs of Fury, and with the high-energy approach we have seen in his recent fights against Ondrej Pála, Edmund Gerber and Mark Scott, employ a strategic game plan to test Fury’s patience – let’s not forget, Fury had big fights with Klitschko and Haye cancelled which may have affected his preparation.

Could it go the distance again?

Chisora vs. Fury II betting will also be available via the OVER/UNDER market for total rounds. This is an interesting market for bettors because despite both boxers favouring a knockout, the previous fight between the pair went the full 12 rounds. Odds of 1.800 suggest the fight will go OVER 8.5 rounds again, while 2.130 is available if you believe the fight won’t last that long.

Both Chisora and Fury have fought eight times in 12 round fights, but their records are very different – Chisora has won 63% (5 of 8), while Fury has won 100% (8 of 8) – and bettors should be aware of this when selecting from the OVER/UNDER 8.5 rounds market.

Interestingly, when the fight has gone the distance Chisora has won one fight out of four, which was his most recent bout with Kevin Johnson back in February 2014. Fury may have won both of his fights – beating Chisora in July 2011 and Kevin Johnson in December 2012 – but he certainly favours the early knockout, five of which have come in under 8.5 rounds (63%). Three of Chisora’s victories have also come in under 8.5 rounds (60%), so bettors can expect these two fighters to explode when the first bell rings on July 26^th.

With the British and European heavyweight titles on the line, as well as the fight being scheduled as a WBO world heavyweight title eliminator, bettors should consider all of these factors before selecting the winner of Chisora vs. Fury II.