The 2014 NBA Finals
Game 1: Sharp bettors were betting the Spurs for the series at around 1.800 or so. The line of 5.5 for Game 1 appeared to be factoring home court as worth perhaps 4.5 points, which would be a lot but for the dominance of the Spurs at home coming in. They had already set a record, having won their prior seven home games by 15 points or more. While the Spurs extended that streak, it was fuelled by Lebron James cramping up in the no-air conditioning sweat box of the AT&T Center and an absurd finish to Game 1’s 4th quarter in which the Spurs hit nearly every shot, breaking a 4th quarter NBA Finals record for shooting percentage, with 87.5% of shots made.
Game 2: With apparently no lingering concern from that Lebron cramping, the Game 2 price finished at a 4 point spread, a fairly typical adjustment toward a strong team down 0-1, not to mention Miami’s great playoff record of bouncing off losses.
Game 3: After Miami’s win, the Game 3 Line opened Miami -4.5 and closed at -4, still a fat 9.5 point flop from the opening game. Was that a reflection of the perceived home court advantage? Or out of deference to a great team that played well in the first two games aside from a cramp incident? Probably a little of both. The Heat were mashed in the first quarter, and despite one mad rally in the third quarter, never recovered.
Game 4: The Heat were 5 point favourites in Game 4, with perhaps 1 to 1.5 points of that coming from the desperation factor and their continued demonstrated strength at bouncing back from a loss – going into this game, the Heat were 12-0 in playoff games coming off a loss, and 11-1 against the spread.
Game 5: San Antonio were 5.5 home favourites for what would prove to be the last game of a major beating.
During the series, odds were pretty stable, but Game 4 saw a good cluster of sharp bettors backing the Spurs despite it being a desperation game for the Heat. While good teams tend to bounce back well from playoff thrashings, perhaps the strong emergence of Kawhi Leonard in Game 3 was a real adjustment to the power rating of the moment.
The Totals for the series drifted slightly down from Game 1-4, only to lift a bit for Game 5, perhaps due to two days off between games and installing Ray Allen in the starting Heat lineup – who is perceived to be plausible in offense and fairly weak in defense. The totals tended to be quite stable for each of the games, with little in the way of strong sharp action pushing the odds in either direction.
San Antonio going forward
Where do Pop’s champs go from here? Why should they change until the wheels come off their key veterans? If Leonard (and Green/Mills to a lesser extent) ascends, it will balance any minor deterioration elsewhere. The Spurs’ quality of depth is optimal for the regular season. These guys can run savagely exquisite offensive sets in a darkened gym. The Gold Standard Spurs elevate the league and may prove the team to beat once we arrive at the 2015 playoffs. Oklahoma and Houston are the main surface challenges from this distance, but have their own weaknesses to put right.
Miami going forward
The Heat generate a lot of action in the playoffs once they are past a usually-easy first round. They aren’t the greatest for action during the regular season unless they are playing a team that is expected to compete with them, as bigger spreads don’t typically get as much action as small spreads. Also, with Wade being protected/rested more than most star players and some other lineup quirks, bettors aren’t as sure on average who is playing or the nature of the effort you’ll get from the Heat nowadays during the regular season.
If Lebron should leave the team (using his early termination option), Miami will be an unknown variable who bettors are likely to shy away from for quite awhile, regardless of who they add to the roster. If they work out something with salaries to pick up Carmelo Anthony, for instance, there will be an adjustment period that could last months.
As far as Melo goes, he and James are very good friends, but Melo wouldn’t seem to make much sense for improving the team for a 2015 NBA Final versus whoever comes out of the West, the only consideration for success or failure with the Heat. They need a better point guard and/or better interior defense. Their offense would be scary at times, but that might only mean they can stave off contenders in the East.
