At the start of every Major League Baseball season, there is reason for optimism. Players are healthy, teams have acquired new talent in the offseason, and prospects are pushing their way into the major leagues.
That might steer players towards a more optimistic outlook for teams. It’s more encouraging to look at the upside rather than considering if a team is getting old, likely to suffer injuries, and maybe those prospects aren’t quite ready. See, it cuts both ways.
At one end of the spectrum, we have the Los Angeles Dodgers, a super team with a win total of 103.5, which is outrageously high and yet, the Over might be the more reasonable side.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago White Sox have a win total of 52.5, which is incredibly low and yet it will require them to win a dozen more games than they won last season if they are going to hit the Over.
Here is a look at some potential value in the regular season win total markets in Major League Baseball.
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MLB Win Totals - Over
San Diego Padres Over 85.5 wins (-110*)
The most obvious obstacle facing the Padres is that they are in a division with the Dodgers, so those head-to-head matchups will not be easy, but the Padres have stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, and Luis Arraez to lead an attack that ranked second in batting average and eighth in OPS+ last season.
The pitching rotation (Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish, Nick Pivetta) has the ability to keep the Padres in every game and that should have them on track for 90-plus wins.
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 86.5 wins (-129*)
Another National League West team that has reason for optimism, aside from that looming threat in Los Angeles. The Diamondbacks have an offense led by Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, and they added Josh Naylor from Cleveland, so there is plenty of reason to be hopeful about a team that led MLB with a .337 on-base percentage in 2024.
The reason to be most optimistic about the Diamondbacks, however, is on the mound. They added ace starter Corbin Burnes, and he joins Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodriguez in a rotation that gives the D’backs a legitimate shot at 90 wins.
Chicago Cubs Over 85.5 wins (-135*)
Favored to win the National League Central, the Cubs powered up their attack by acquiring Kyle Tucker from Houston and he is a legitimate star to lead the way for an offense that was average in 2024.
The top end of the Cubs’ rotation is excellent, with Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon all capable of having big seasons. Matthew Boyd bounced back late last season and should be good for a rotation spot, and with Javier Assad injured, perhaps Ben Brown will get a look in the fifth spot.
All told, the Cubs seem to be the best of the NL Central, and that surely should result in more than 85 wins.
Seattle Mariners Over 84.5 wins (-141*)
Without a doubt, the Mariners need another bat or three to provide a suitable offense, but they ranked 11th with an OPS+ of 103 last season and Julio Rodriguez has star potential. If the Mariners are contenders, they should have no trouble in making moves to acquire hitters that will provide adequate support for their pitching staff.
Seattle’s starting rotation is enviable. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo give the Mariners a chance to win every time out. Last season, Seattle’s starting pitchers ranked first in ERA (3.38) and fourth in Fan Graphs WAR (15.2). That’s a rotation that can drive a winning season with a little offensive help.
MLB Win Totals - Under
Cincinnati Reds Under 78.5 wins (+110*)
Staying in the NL Central, the Cincinnati Reds do not appear to have enough talent surrounding star shortstop Elly De La Cruz. They ranked 29th in OPS+ last season and the only two regulars, beyond De La Cruz, that were above average were catcher Tyler Stephenson and second baseman Jonathan India. Stephenson just suffered an injury in Spring Training and India has moved on to Kansas City.
The Reds have an ace pitcher in Hunter Greene, and the rest of the rotation – Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, and Andrew Abbott – is fine, but not enough to think that this team should reach .500 and if they fall out of contention, there is more downside as the season progresses.
San Francisco Giants Under 79.5 wins (+106*)
The Giants had a slightly above-average offense in 2024, finishing with an OPS+ of 101, and they brought in shortstop Willy Adames, but with Michael Conforto leaving, there may not be much of a net gain.
The biggest concern for the Giants is that their rotation depends on aging former aces. Logan Webb is terrific, and Jordan Hicks showed some promise in his first year as a starter. However, the Giants are counting on 42-year-old Justin Verlander, who had a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts last season, and 33-year-old lefty Robbie Ray, who has started a total of eight games across the past two seasons.
Texas Rangers Under 84.5 wins (+119*)
Offensively, the Rangers have a star at shortstop in Corey Seager and added veterans Jake Burger and Joc Peterson, plus they have some young players with serious potential like Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter.
On the other hand, the Rangers enter the season with a starting rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Cody Bradford. While he is amazing when healthy, deGrom is 36 and has started a total of 47 games across the past five seasons. Mahle has started eight games across the past two seasons. Bradford will start the season on the injured list.
There is the possibility that the pitchers will stay healthy, and this Rangers team contends, but it seems far more likely that one or two injuries send this team into mediocrity.
*Subject to change.
Bet: MLB Odds
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